2020 Fantasy Football Quarterback Preview: Projections, sleepers, breakouts, busts and more


Ever wish you could find just one place for all of your 2020 Fantasy Football quarterback research? You don’t have to wish any longer. Below you’ll find potential league winners like Patrick Mahomes and deep sleepers like Gardner Minshew. You’ll find all the numbers you need to know, tiers and projections. Yes, you’ll find busts, too. 

While we’ve jam-packed all the re-draft information we can into one article, you’ll have to settle for links for the Dynasty content. Our Dynasty quarterback rankings are here and our Dynasty Tiers can be found here.

Before we get to the potential league-winners, it’s probably worthwhile to take a quick look at the state of the position. We say it every year, but quarterback is deep. Veterans like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers are still hanging on toward the bottom of the top 12, but they’ve been supplanted at the top by a more mobile crew. Nine of the top 10 Fantasy quarterbacks in 2019 ran for at least 200 yards. Half of the top 10 topped 300 rushing yards. For reference, just five years before only two of the top 10 Fantasy quarterbacks ran for more than 300 yards.

The funny thing is, even with the young mobile guys up top, and some of the goats right behind them, there are still a lot of late-round options to be had. Ryan Tannehill was the No. 2 quarterback in Fantasy after he became the Titans starter. Matthew Stafford was No. 6 before he got hurt. Joe Burrow was the No. 1 overall pick and has a phenomenal supporting cast. That’s why, even with all their upside, you shouldn’t be drafting the very best quarterbacks in the first two rounds. Speaking of draft strategy …

Quarterback draft strategy

This varies wildly depending on league, but we’ll try to fit it all in a couple of paragraphs. In a one-quarterback league the preferred strategy is still to wait. Don’t draft any quarterback before Round 3 at the very earliest. Assuming that means you’ve missed Mahomes and Jackson, you should wait until at least Round 5 or 6. If Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson are still there that’s a fine time to take the plunge. Otherwise, wait until Round 10 and select one of Carson Wentz, Josh Allen, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan or Brees. All those guys gone? You’ll be fine pairing two of Ben Roethlisberger, Minshew, Daniel Jones, Cam Newton or Jared Goff.

In a league where you can start two quarterbacks? That makes Mahomes and Jackson first-round picks. It bumps that second tier up to the second round. If you miss those first two tiers, it really depends on where you’re drafting. If you’re in the middle of the round you can wait until around 12 quarterbacks are off the board then use your next two picks on the position. If you’re on either end, you need to go a bit sooner just because of how quickly they can fly off the board in this format. 

The Fantasy Football Today podcast crew went deep with the quarterbacks earlier this week. Follow all our podcasts and subscribe here,

Now let’s take a look at the breakouts, sleepers and busts. As a reminder, sleepers and busts are heavily influenced by ADP, and for this version we’re using NFC ADP since June 13.

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Numbers to know

  • 9.0% — Lamar Jackson’s  2019 touchdown rate. That should fall below 6.0% at the very least, which is the biggest reason why Jackson’s 2020 production will regress.
  • 25.4 — Matthew Stafford’s Fantasy points per game before he was injured. Only Jackson scored more.
  • 9.6 — Ryan Tannehill’s yards per attempt in 2019. That’s 33% better than Tannehill’s career average and 21% better than Russell Wilson’s career mark. Wilson is the active leader in yards per attempt. Don’t expect that to continue.
  • 596 — Dak Prescott’s pass attempts in 2019. The Cowboys were much more pass heavy in Kellen Moore’s first season as a play-caller.
  • 1,834 — The difference between Jameis Winston and Tom Brady in air yards last season. Either Brady or Bruce Arians will have to make significant changes in 2020.
  • 17 — Josh Allen’s rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons in the league. There’s some regression risk, but he’s looking more and more like vintage Cam Newton in the red zone.
  • 67.9% — Cam Newton’s completion percentage in 2018, in case anyone tells you he’s just a runner.
  • 4.4% — Aaron Rodgers’ touchdown rate for the past two seasons. That’s close to league average but well below his career rate of 6.0%.  That could either be a sign of coming regression or Rodgers’ skill deterioration.
  • 400.9 — Ben Roethlisberger’s Fantasy points in 2018, when he was a top-four quarterback. Jackson was the only quarterback to top 400 Fantasy points last year. Don’t forget about Big Ben.

Draft to stream

Cam Newton Week 1 vs. Miami, Week 2 at Seattle

If Newton is his old self, you can probably forget about draft to stream. You may even have a top-five quarterback. But even if he’s not, these matchups look pretty fantastic in the first two weeks. In fact, the Patriots don’t play a definitively good pass defense until October.

Tyrod Taylor Week 1 at Cincinnati, Week 2 vs. Kansas City

The Bengals defense should be bad enough to propel Taylor to a good start to the season, and the Chiefs offense should have him in catch-up mode. Taylor has the best set of weapons he’s ever had and should get off to a blazing start as long as he beats out Justin Herbert.

Teddy Bridgewater Week 1 vs. Las Vegas, Week 2 at Tampa Bay

The Raiders and the Buccaneers were both in the bottom third of the league when it came to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last year. In his start against Tampa Bay last year, Bridgewater threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns. The Panthers’ porous defense should ensure Bridgewater’s pass attempts are high.

Tiers

Projections





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